Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.4#35
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 9.9% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 9.9% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 16.6% 9.9% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.3% 51.2% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.2% 43.0% 23.5%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 8.9
.500 or above 86.7% 89.3% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 81.4% 68.8%
Conference Champion 17.1% 18.1% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.3% 2.9%
First Four6.5% 6.6% 5.7%
First Round45.0% 47.8% 26.4%
Second Round26.4% 28.3% 13.8%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 13.0% 5.4%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.4% 2.6%
Final Four2.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 2.80.7 - 2.8
Quad 1b1.6 - 2.52.3 - 5.3
Quad 24.3 - 3.26.6 - 8.4
Quad 36.1 - 1.712.6 - 10.1
Quad 46.8 - 0.419.4 - 10.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 84-75 87%    
  Nov 09, 2018 304   McNeese St. W 89-71 98%    
  Nov 12, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 89-78 90%    
  Nov 19, 2018 21   Mississippi St. L 76-79 39%    
  Nov 21, 2018 144   Utah St. W 82-73 78%    
  Nov 28, 2018 253   Nebraska Omaha W 90-75 95%    
  Dec 01, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 91-76 94%    
  Dec 07, 2018 7   Nevada L 80-87 28%    
  Dec 15, 2018 80   @ Georgia W 74-70 54%    
  Dec 17, 2018 83   @ Vanderbilt W 79-75 54%    
  Dec 22, 2018 1   Kansas L 76-86 28%    
  Dec 29, 2018 145   Princeton W 79-70 85%    
  Jan 03, 2019 87   Utah W 77-73 73%    
  Jan 05, 2019 84   Colorado W 79-75 73%    
  Jan 09, 2019 198   @ California W 83-71 78%    
  Jan 12, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 83-77 61%    
  Jan 17, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 78-74 73%    
  Jan 19, 2019 17   Oregon L 76-79 49%    
  Jan 24, 2019 50   @ UCLA W 84-83 42%    
  Jan 26, 2019 58   @ USC W 79-78 44%    
  Jan 31, 2019 66   Arizona W 80-78 66%    
  Feb 07, 2019 191   Washington St. W 87-75 88%    
  Feb 09, 2019 42   Washington L 80-81 60%    
  Feb 13, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 79-75 55%    
  Feb 16, 2019 87   @ Utah W 77-73 55%    
  Feb 20, 2019 108   Stanford W 83-77 77%    
  Feb 24, 2019 198   California W 83-71 89%    
  Feb 28, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 76-79 30%    
  Mar 03, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 78-74 54%    
  Mar 09, 2019 66   @ Arizona W 80-78 47%    
Projected Record 19.4 - 10.6 11.1 - 6.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 3.6 4.5 4.0 2.5 0.6 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 3.8 5.6 6.6 9.0 11.2 11.4 12.4 11.6 9.8 6.7 4.4 2.5 0.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.4% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 92.2% 4.0    3.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 67.2% 4.5    2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.2% 3.6    1.5 1.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 14.9% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.6 4.9 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 72.6% 27.4% 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 99.9% 35.2% 64.7% 4.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 6.7% 98.1% 26.2% 71.9% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.4%
14-4 9.8% 91.2% 21.0% 70.1% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 88.8%
13-5 11.6% 79.4% 15.6% 63.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.4 75.6%
12-6 12.4% 60.2% 13.3% 46.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 54.1%
11-7 11.4% 40.8% 10.4% 30.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 33.9%
10-8 11.2% 21.3% 7.3% 14.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 15.1%
9-9 9.0% 11.3% 6.4% 4.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.2%
8-10 6.6% 3.9% 3.0% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.9%
7-11 5.6% 2.4% 2.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 48.3% 13.5% 34.8% 7.7 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.0 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 51.7 40.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.4 19.6